Presently, individuals might be familiar with the PredictAd project for Alzheimer’s disease. Now, a new mathematical model of global Alzheimer’s risk to be presented at the Alzheimer’s Association International Conference 2011 (AAIC 2011) in Paris has suggested that lowering the incidence of known lifestyle-related chronic disorder risk variables by 25% may possibly prohibit 3 million instances of Alzheimer’s across the world.
As part of the study, investigators used mathematical modeling to gauge the number of Alzheimer’s cases that may be influenced by diabetes, mid-life hypertension, mid-life obesity, smoking, depression, poor education, and physical inactivity. The aforesaid new model reveals that almost half of the global Alzheimer’s cases are seemingly a result of these influential lifestyle risk factors. The next phase of the study is to unfold if altering these factors will lessen Alzheimer’s risk in due course.
“Alzheimer’s disease is a global emergency, and we must accelerate the discovery of methods to detect and prevent it now. Estimated worldwide costs of dementia are US$604 billion — $183 billion in the U.S. alone. Deaths from Alzheimer’s disease are rising while those from other diseases are falling. In fact, Alzheimer’s is the only cause of death among the top 10 in the United States that cannot be prevented, cured or even slowed. The World Alzheimer Report 2010 by Alzheimer’s Disease International says that dementia is significantly affecting every health and social care system in the world, and costs of dementia are set to soar,” commented William Thies, PhD, Alzheimer’s Association Chief Medical and Scientific Officer.
Analysts calculated the population attributable risks (PARs) to estimate the percentage of cases of Alzheimer’s disease that are potentially a result, or caused by, various risk factors. It came to light that cumulatively, the aforementioned 7 modifiable risk factors were supposedly responsible for almost 17 million Alzheimer’s cases globally and nearly 3 million incidences in the U.S.
As per calculations by a scientist Deborah Barnes, a 10 percent decrease in all 7 risk variables could cease almost 1.1 million Alzheimer’s cases worldwide and 184,000 cases in the U.S. A 25 percent lowering of the all seven risk factors could potentially prevent more than 3 million Alzheimer’s cases worldwide and 492,000 cases in the U.S. happening in the future.
In another AAIC study, investigators are examining the properties of senior adults who have apparently sustained normal cognitive function to construct an index of resilient cognitive aging. Their objective is to locate a group of factors that identify cognitive stability in late life for utility in clinical trials and practices. Comprehending the properties and acknowledging behaviors that promote healthy cognitive aging would seemingly help in the efforts for the reduction of risk factors to prevent Alzheimer’s and other types of dementia.
The study results will be published online in Lancet Neurology.